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CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 27 April 2010 (Tue) (00:30GMT)

Euro Volatile in Bailout Uncertainty.

US. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day of trading as US stocks finished flat and early gains against the Euro where short-lived. Profit taking on commodities however, did see their recent rallies pared back. Focus on the US financial Regulation overhaul added pressure to US banking stocks. In US stocks, DJIA +1 points closing at 11205, S&P -5 points closing at 1212 and NASDAQ -7 points closing at 2522. Looking ahead, February Case Shiller forecast at 1.2% vs. -0.7% previously. Also released, CB Consumer Confidence is forecast at 53.5 vs. 52.5 previously.

The Euro (EUR) was sold initially from Fridays close as the market responded to political uncertainty regarding the Greece Bailout in Germany. Supportive comments later from Merkal and other German Lawmakers saw the Euro rally strongly into the US Close with 1.3400 resistance the key target. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3291 and a high of 1.3417 before closing at 1.3410. Looking ahead, May Gfk Index forecast at 3.3 vs. 3.2 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggled above Y94 as crosses found resistance and stocks markets in the US failed to maintain gains. AUD/JPY tested resistance in the Asian session and EUR/JPY rebounded off lows but closed well off highs. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.84 and a high of 94.38 before closing the day arounUd 94.05 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was the strongest currency on the day as UK house Prices jumped 1.8% y/y in April and 0.2% m/m and inspired a test of 1.5500. EUR/GBP tested 0.8600 as the height of the Euro's concerns but rebounded aggressively later in the US session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5365 and a high of 1.5500 before closing the day at 1.5480 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Distributive Trades are forecast 15 vs. 13.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled at the 0.9300 level as commodities were weaker and AUD/JPY profit taking set in. The mood is still bullish however with many analysts looking to buy on the dips for a test of 0.9400 highs. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9248 and a high of 0.9315 before closing the US session at 0.9280. Looking ahead, Q1 PPI forecast at 0.6% vs. -0.4%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) failed at the $1160 resistance but the pullback was mild. Overall trading with a low of USD$1150 and high of USD$1160 before ending the New York session at USD$1155 an ounce. Crude Oil receded from recent rally highs above $85 as profit taking emerged. WTI Oil Closed -$0.92 at $84.20 a barrel.

Technical Commentary
 
 

Currency	Support 1	Support 2	Spot	Resistant 1	Resistant 2
EUR/USD	1.3131	1.3202	1.3405	1.3422	1.3692
USD/JPY	92.74	93.31	93.80	94.79	95.29
GBP/USD	1.5044	1.5130	1.5475	1.5522	1.5688
AUD/USD	0.9035	0.9131	0.9280	0.9364	0.9406
XAU/USD	1122.00	1135.00	1155.00	1164.00	1183.00
OIL/USD	80.00	82.50	84.10	85.00	86.00

 

Euro – 1.3405
Initial support at 1.3202 (Apr 23 2009 low) followed by 1.3131 (Apr 28 2009 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3422 (Apr 22 high) followed by 1.3692 (Apr 12 high)

Yen – 93.80
Initial support is located at 93.31 (Apr 23 low) followed by 92.74 (Apr 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 94.79 (Aug 5 high) followed by 95.29 (Aug 18 High).

Pound – 1.5475
Initial support at 1.5130 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1.5044 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5522 (Apr 15 low) followed by 1.5688 (Feb 18 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9280
Initial support at 0.9131 (Mar 31 low) followed by the 0.9035 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9364 (Apr 15 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1155
Initial support at 1135 (Apr 23 low) followed by 1122 (Apr 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1164 (April 12 high) followed by 1183 (0.764 of 1126.56-1044.85).

Oil – 84.10
Initial support at 82.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 85.00 (March high) followed by 86.00 (Intraday Resistance).